Business Forecasting
Subject Overview
The fourth Business Analytics group elective, covering forecasting and demand analysis fundamentals, market research techniques and regression forecasting, time series analysis and ARIMA models, and qualitative forecasting techniques and forecast accuracy. A 4-credit elective theory paper.
Unit-wise Syllabus
4 units — click WhatsApp below to get the full notes for each
Unit 1: Forecasting fundamentals
Significance of demand analysis and forecasting, determinants of demand, elasticity, revenue and profit estimation, forecasting technique selection, purpose of forecast and types of users
Unit 2: Regression-based forecasting
Marketing research techniques, consumer surveys and market experiments, statistical estimation, variable identification, time series and cross-sectional data, regression model specification and interpretation, forecasting with regression models
Unit 3: Time series analysis
Smoothing and extrapolation of time series, seasonal adjustment, autocorrelation function, stationarity, random walk, linear time series (moving average, autoregressive, ARIMA models, Box-Jenkins methodology), ARCH/GARCH volatility modeling
Unit 4: Qualitative techniques and accuracy
Survey and opinion polling techniques, exponential smoothing, barometric techniques, leading/lagging/coincident economic indicators, diffusion and composite indexes, accuracy of forecasts, use of forecasting software